在多个因素的作用之下，汽车行业可能将在未来几年内迎来历史上最具颠覆性的变化。互联功能和自动化所带来的变化不仅将改变整个汽车行业的面貌，而且也会给供应链上的各个环节均带来一定影响。

今年，在美国密歇根州诺维市举行的SAE 2016汽车电子大会的“分析师观点：供应链现状”讨论环节中，各位业内专家详细介绍了技术发展和人口结构特征变化可能给汽车行业带来的重大影响。

罗兰贝格战略咨询公司的Marc Winterhoff强调了将在未来几年内主导汽车行业的四大因素——出行服务共享、汽车互联、车辆电气化和SAE 5级自动驾驶技术。这些因素均将在未来一段时期内推动汽车行业稳步增长，但是，一旦全自动驾驶的“机器人出租车”出现，就将开始改变汽车共享的世界。

“即使在如今这样一个极具颠覆性的环境下，汽车行业发展势头仍将不减。”Winterhoff表示，“到2025年以前，汽车产量将持续保持增长。而到2030年‘机器人出租车’开始稳住脚跟时，驾乘分享服务则会大幅减少。”

咨询公司 德勤 的Joseph Vitale指出，人口结构特点改变对汽车市场转型的影响，不亚于汽车技术的发展。德勤的调查结果显示，Y时代出生的美国汽车用户，非常热衷于最新的汽车技术。

Vitale表示，“他们愿意为这些技术支付的费用，比婴儿潮时期出生的用户高4倍。”

人口结构的变化也将推动全自动驾驶汽车时代的到来。婴儿潮时期出生的一代人逐渐进入老年，他们可能会转而使用全自动“机器人出租车”，而不再自己开车。

“自动驾驶汽车的关键市场是老年人和残障人士，这部分用户通常资金充裕，出行需求也不会太紧急，”Glenn Mercer Automotive公司的Glenn Mercer表示，“他们可能不愿意一直依赖朋友或家人的接送。”

传统车辆动力系统的电气化，将成为改变汽车行业的另一个重要因素。Vitale指出，为了解决污染问题，中国的监管机构正在强制推进国内汽车行业的电气化。Winterhoff预测，电动车的市场占有率将在2025年前迎来惊人的增长。

此后，“机器人出租车”（绝大多数已经采用全电动推进系统）将迎来稳定增长。然而，尽管各位专家均承认汽车电气化扮演的重要角色，但他们在本届大会上的关注重点却并非仅限于插电式电动车。

“未来三到五年内，汽车行业的最大变革将发生在内燃机领域。”瑞银集团的Colin Langan表示，“许多公司都在开发48V电气系统，而这可能会推迟电动汽车的普及，毕竟48V系统仅用25%的成本就能实现混动汽车75%的效益。”

Many factors are making the next few years one of most disruptive eras the automotive industry has ever seen. Diverse dynamics such as connectivity and autonomy will transform the industry and impact companies throughout the supply chain.

A number of industry experts detailed a variety of ways that technology and demographics will have a transformative influence during the “State of the Supply Chain: An Analyst’s View” panel at 2016 SAE Convergence in Novi, MI.

Marc Winterhoff of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants highlighted four major trends that will dominate the industry over the next few years: shared mobility, connectivity, electrification and Level 5 autonomous driving. These changes will fuel solid growth until autonomous "robocabs" transform that segment of the shared-vehicle world.

“Even in this disruptive environment, good times are coming for the auto industry,” Winterhoff said. “Shipments will grow through 2025. Ride sharing will largely fade away by 2030 as robocabs take hold.”

Joseph Vitale of Deloitte & Touche LLP noted that demographics will have as much of a role in market changes as do shifting trends in vehicle technology. The firm’s surveys show that in the U.S., Generation Y vehicle buyers want the latest technology.

“They will pay as much as four times as much as baby boomers said they will pay,” Vitale said.

Changing demographics also could play a role in the emergence of autonomous vehicles. Aging baby boomers may utilize autonomous robocabs rather than drive.

“Key markets for autonomous vehicles are elderly and disabled people who are dissatisfied with depending on friends and family for rides,” said Glenn Mercer of Glenn Mercer Automotive LLC. “They have money and they don’t need to go far or go fast.”

Electrified powertrains will be a significant disruptor. Vitale noted that China’s regulators are mandating electrification as they address the country’s pollution problems. Winterhoff predicted that EVs will see evolutionary market penetration through 2025.

Around that time, robocabs—most of which will have all-electric propulsion—will start seeing solid growth. Although panelists all predicted that electrification will be a primary game-changer, their focus at Convergence wasn't strictly on plug-in vehicles.

“In the next three to five years, the biggest trends will be in the internal-combustion engine,” said Colin Langan of UBS Inc. “Many companies are developing 48-volt electrical systems, which could (extend the timeframe for) electric-vehicle adoption; 48-volt can provide 75% of the benefits of hybrids at about 25% of the cost.”

Author: Terry Costlow
Source: SAE Automotive Engineering Magazine